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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."