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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.